CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-11-01T18:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18164/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen to the southwest in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. The source of this CME appears to be a C1.3 class flare from Active Region 12887 (S28W58) and an accompanying eruption seen in AIA 193 and 171. The shock caused most probably by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-02T02:48Z CME is characterized by the dramatic increase in B_tot, first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in ion temperature the next morning. The arrival of this combined CME front was marked by an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T19:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T18:39Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.66667 - 6.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -16.08 hour(s)
Difference: 0.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-11-04T11:28Z
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